COMPS
Marc Lawrence Comp
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Braves and Rays complete a three game Interleague series when Tim Hudson toes the rubber against James Shields in Atlanta tonight. Hudson takes the mound in fine form at 5-2 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven team starts. He's also 6-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his career home team starts against the Rays. With James Shields 0-4 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts, look for the Braves to lower the axe on Tampa here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta
Steve Merril
Bonus Play
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
A pair of aces will be on display Thursday afternoon in Minnesota as Francisco Liriano takes on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez. The Rockies righty is 12-1 with a 1.16 ERA on the year. There have been a couple of chinks in his armor as he's given up five runs and 11 hits in his last 13 innings pitched. Minnesota faced Jimenez in 2008 beating him 4-2 in Colorado. He gave up three runs and eight hits in seven innings of work in that game. Justin Morneau (1-3), Joe Mauer (1-4), and Delmon Young (3-3) all have hits off him. Minnesota is 23-12 at home and 26-18 against right-handed pitching, and the Twins have also feasted on N.L. pitching as they are hitting over .290 as a team. Francisco Liriano is rounding into the ace the Twins expected him to be. He's 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 12 starts. The lefty is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts striking out 28 while walking only two. Miguel Olivo (4-13) and Melvin Mora (0-3) are the only two Rockies who have faced Liriano. Colorado is just 10-9 against left-handed starters averaging 4.4 runs per game. They are also 14-20 on the road where they are hitting .235 as a squad. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, we like Liriano to out-duel Jimenez this afternoon.
BIG AL COMP
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
There's nothing like an inter-league game against a really bad National League team and a really bad National League pitcher to help a really bad American League team break out of its funk in a big way. To be fair to the Royals, they actually had already beaten a really good National League team in two out of three games over the weekend before really breaking out on Tuesday night against the really bad Houston Astros and scoring 15 runs on 20 hits, most of it against Felipe Paulino. Now they face a decidedly better starter in righthander Brett Myers. Through 13 starts, Myers has a very nice ERA of just 3.18, but his problem is that he no longer pitches for a team like the Phillies, so he's only won four of those 13 starts thanks to his anemic offense. Myers has faced 12 AL teams in his career, but he's never faced the Royals, although his inter-league record leaves a lot to be desired. In 22 inter-league games (20 starts) he's just 6-6 with an ugly ERA of 5.66. Take the Royals.
Gill Alexander
Bonus Play
LOS (-110) vs CIN
Ely is coming off two marginal starts compared to the mastery of his earlier ones. But, a closer look reveals that in his most recent outing, a 5IP, 4ER, 6H appearance v LAA, he really only threw 2 costly pitches. He still has a stellar 1.13WHIP. Arroyo has a 6.52ERA in his last 3 starts. LAD is batting .357 and averaging 9.2 R/G in 5G at Great American Ballpark this season. Ely has a 3.11FIP (10th best in MLB if he qualified) and 3.82xFIP in '10. Arroyo has a 4.54FIP and a 5.08xFIP (13th worst in MLB). Loney (.471) and Ethier (.368) rake Arroyo while Ramirez is hitting .485 in his last 10 v Cin. LAD has won 29 of 38 v Cin. I expect it to be 30 of 39 this afternoon
Brad Diamond Sports
Bonus Play
NY Yankees -1½ over Philadelphia
First, the runs line used for this selection is a projection (unlike the aforementioned action line above) the Phillies are in deep water on Thursday. RHP Kyle Kendrick has talent, but his tendency to get up in the strike zone is the kiss of death against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium where the short porches show fast. Technically, New York roars in at 11-1 in IL play versus right-handed pitchers and 42-10 at home against strong siders. In addition, the Yankees show at 6-1 (versus a winning team) with lefty Andy Pettitte at home and 21-6 overall in the Bronx. The Phillies are 1-5 in Interleague games and 1-7 in road starts. Finally, the visitor here is 0-5 last five times out versus the port side hurlers.
Marc Lawrence Comp
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Braves and Rays complete a three game Interleague series when Tim Hudson toes the rubber against James Shields in Atlanta tonight. Hudson takes the mound in fine form at 5-2 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven team starts. He's also 6-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his career home team starts against the Rays. With James Shields 0-4 with an 8.38 ERA in his last four starts, look for the Braves to lower the axe on Tampa here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta
Steve Merril
Bonus Play
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
A pair of aces will be on display Thursday afternoon in Minnesota as Francisco Liriano takes on Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez. The Rockies righty is 12-1 with a 1.16 ERA on the year. There have been a couple of chinks in his armor as he's given up five runs and 11 hits in his last 13 innings pitched. Minnesota faced Jimenez in 2008 beating him 4-2 in Colorado. He gave up three runs and eight hits in seven innings of work in that game. Justin Morneau (1-3), Joe Mauer (1-4), and Delmon Young (3-3) all have hits off him. Minnesota is 23-12 at home and 26-18 against right-handed pitching, and the Twins have also feasted on N.L. pitching as they are hitting over .290 as a team. Francisco Liriano is rounding into the ace the Twins expected him to be. He's 6-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 12 starts. The lefty is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts striking out 28 while walking only two. Miguel Olivo (4-13) and Melvin Mora (0-3) are the only two Rockies who have faced Liriano. Colorado is just 10-9 against left-handed starters averaging 4.4 runs per game. They are also 14-20 on the road where they are hitting .235 as a squad. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, we like Liriano to out-duel Jimenez this afternoon.
BIG AL COMP
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
There's nothing like an inter-league game against a really bad National League team and a really bad National League pitcher to help a really bad American League team break out of its funk in a big way. To be fair to the Royals, they actually had already beaten a really good National League team in two out of three games over the weekend before really breaking out on Tuesday night against the really bad Houston Astros and scoring 15 runs on 20 hits, most of it against Felipe Paulino. Now they face a decidedly better starter in righthander Brett Myers. Through 13 starts, Myers has a very nice ERA of just 3.18, but his problem is that he no longer pitches for a team like the Phillies, so he's only won four of those 13 starts thanks to his anemic offense. Myers has faced 12 AL teams in his career, but he's never faced the Royals, although his inter-league record leaves a lot to be desired. In 22 inter-league games (20 starts) he's just 6-6 with an ugly ERA of 5.66. Take the Royals.
Gill Alexander
Bonus Play
LOS (-110) vs CIN
Ely is coming off two marginal starts compared to the mastery of his earlier ones. But, a closer look reveals that in his most recent outing, a 5IP, 4ER, 6H appearance v LAA, he really only threw 2 costly pitches. He still has a stellar 1.13WHIP. Arroyo has a 6.52ERA in his last 3 starts. LAD is batting .357 and averaging 9.2 R/G in 5G at Great American Ballpark this season. Ely has a 3.11FIP (10th best in MLB if he qualified) and 3.82xFIP in '10. Arroyo has a 4.54FIP and a 5.08xFIP (13th worst in MLB). Loney (.471) and Ethier (.368) rake Arroyo while Ramirez is hitting .485 in his last 10 v Cin. LAD has won 29 of 38 v Cin. I expect it to be 30 of 39 this afternoon
Brad Diamond Sports
Bonus Play
NY Yankees -1½ over Philadelphia
First, the runs line used for this selection is a projection (unlike the aforementioned action line above) the Phillies are in deep water on Thursday. RHP Kyle Kendrick has talent, but his tendency to get up in the strike zone is the kiss of death against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium where the short porches show fast. Technically, New York roars in at 11-1 in IL play versus right-handed pitchers and 42-10 at home against strong siders. In addition, the Yankees show at 6-1 (versus a winning team) with lefty Andy Pettitte at home and 21-6 overall in the Bronx. The Phillies are 1-5 in Interleague games and 1-7 in road starts. Finally, the visitor here is 0-5 last five times out versus the port side hurlers.
COMPS:
Dave Cokin Comp
(971) HOUSTON ASTROS
(972) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take "(971) HOUSTON ASTROS"
Golden contender
On Thursday the Bonus Play is on the Chicago WhiteSox. Game 959 at 7:05 eastern. Chicago fits a nice system here tonight that plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs,if they left 5 or more men on base and they are taking on an opponent off a 5 or more run home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and left 4 or less men on base. These road favorites cash 84% of the time over the past few years. The Pirates are on a long losing streak and have been playing lousy fundamental baseball, as evidence by all their errors last night. Chicago will look to get their first road sweep tonight. On Thursday I have a the NBA Finals side that will cash and is backed with a Solid system and 3 big never before seen Power angles. In MLB we cashed the top play on Wednesday and have a Big Totals system that averages 12.5 runs per game. For the Bonus Play take the Chicago Whitesox to deal the struggling Pirates another loss.
MATT FARGO
Bonus Play
We used the Dodgers in this spot last night and we will go back with them this afternoon in the series finale. Just like last night, there is tremendous value on the Dodgers here after they have taken the first two games of this series with relative ease. That now makes it 14 wins in the last 17 meetings in this series and for Los Angeles overall, it is now 27-11 over its last 38 games including an 11-3 record on the road. Cincinnati is just 3-6 on its current homestand and it has now fallen into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the National League Central. The pitching is turning into a problem as the ERA from the starters over the last 10 games is a gaudy 5.58 while the bullpen ERA over that span is 5.68. After tossing six straight quality starts, rookie John Ely has struggled over his last two games, allowing four runs in five innings on both occasions. This is a great spot to bounce back as he was hurt by the long ball in those games, giving up three dingers, his first three of the entire season. On the season he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in nine starts with the Dodgers going 6-3 in those games. The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been extremely inconsistent all season. In his 13 starts, he has thrown only six quality outings and only three of his six starts at home have been quality performances as well. In his career, Arroyo is just 22-31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to 69-55 with a 4.15 ERA at night and facing the Dodgers will not help matters. In nine starts against Los Angeles, he is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA with his teams going just 1-8 in those games. This includes a 0-4 record since 2008. The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game while the Reds are 1-7 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game so momentum has played a big role of late. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers
JOHN MARTIN
NBA | Jun 17
1 Unit Bonus Play on Los Angeles Lakers -7
JACK JONES
Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Arizona Diamondbacks +133
Dan Haren has finally turned the corner for the Diamondbacks, pitching very well of late after his usual slow start to the season. Haren is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Arizona. He is mowing down hitters this season, striking out 97 batters in 95.2 innings. His control has been much better of late, and he is no longer serving up the long ball. Haren gave up just 2 walks and 1 home run in his last 3 outings.
John Lackey has not pitched well this season though his record would not indicate it. Lackey is 7-3 despite posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.574 WHIP this year. He is 5-1 at home despite a 5.10 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his seven home outings. This just means that Lackey has been getting tremendous run support, but that ends tonight against Haren. The Diamondbacks Ace has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in six career starts vs. Boston. This is notoriously one of Haren's best months, as the righty has gone 25-9 against the money line in June games since 1997. He is also 25-9 against the Money Line vs. AL East opponents in his career. So Haren has owned what is known as the best division in basebal throughout his career. Boston could be disinterested tonight after winning the first 2 games of this series and with the Dodgers up next. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. Take Arizona Thursday showing solid value.
CRAIG TRAPP
Bonus Play
ATL -120: Just a few weeks ago TB was one of the best teams in the league but don't look now they have lost 4 of 6 and have not looked great in many of the games. Worse news for TB is that pitching has not been great for them. Including struggles with today's starter Shields. 0-4 last 4 starts as Shields has given up 22 runs in 23 innings. On the other side we have one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL as Hudson goes for ATL. Hudson has been dominating with a ton of ground ball outs and he has not allowed over 3 runs this season. ATL is not the best at the plate but at home they are much better and combine that with Shields struggles think ATL will win very easily. ENJOY!
JAMIE TURSINI
Bonus Play
MLB | Jun 17
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees Total
10 over+100
Chris Jordan
Bonus Play
Let me be the first to tell you, and keep this in mind for the second half of the season, the Nationals are going to be an absolute dangerous baseball underdog after the All-Star Break. Their rotation with Strasburg, Lannan, Hernandez and today’s starter Luis Atilano can be productive from what I’ve seen thus far. I like this kid Atilano, who is 5-3 thus far, with a somewhat respectable 4.34 ERA, but most importantly has been a workhorse on the road and plenty reliable in opposing stadiums.
The 25-year-old right-hander is 4-1 with a suitcase in hand, and sports an even better 3.51 ERA than his overall number. I know he’s lost his last two starts, but he was due to fail, and he didn’t even pitch that bad against Cleveland or Cincinnati, allowing just four earned runs over 12 innings of work.
The loss to Cleveland was his first road setback, as he dealt nothing but value against the Cubs, Mets, Rockies, Giants and Astros. I expect nothing less today against the Tigers. I know he’ll be in for a battle against Jeremy Bonderman, who has a 2.45 ERA at home. But Detroit’s right-hander is 1-2 in Motown, and just was swatted around for seven earned runs by Kansas City two starts back.
Give me the huge value play with a great price on this underdog today.
3? NATIONALS (LIST ATILANO AND BONDERMAN)
Stephen Nover
Bonus Play
There has been a big gap between the two clubs since the Yankees beat the Phillies in the World Series last year. The gap has become so large the Yankees are worth laying 1 1/2 on the run line against Philadelphia.
The Yankees remain one of the best, if not the best, team in baseball. The Phillies, however, are really struggling. Their hitting has fallen apart with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth all mired in slumps and Jimmy Rollins on the DL.
The Phillies aren't helped by this pitching mismatch either. They are going with right-hander Kyle Kendrick against southpaw Andy Pettitte.
Kendrick has a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Phillies have lost in eight of Kendrick’s past 10 road starts. He's in danger of losing his spot in the rotation when J.A. Happ comes off the DL in the near future.
The Yankees are 42-10 at home when facing a right-handed starter. The Phillies have lost the last five times they've gone against a southpaw.
Pettitte is red-hot, too, not surrendering more than two earned runs during any of his past four starts. He is 6-1 at Yankee Stadium this season with a 2.84 ERA.
The Yankees are 27-11 in Pettitte's last 38 interleague starts.
3? YANKEES RUN LINE (LIST BOTH PITCHERS)
Chuck O'Brien Comp
Thursday’s complimentary selection in interleague action comes from Yankee Stadium, as I’ll take New York on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Phillies.
Philadelphia got a stunning pitching performance from the ageless Jamie Moyer last night and pulled off a huge 6-3 upset victory, which snapped the Yankees’ nine-game home winning streak. However, New York simply doesn’t lose consecutive home games – it’s happened just once all season, and it was a three-game slide against the Red Sox (one) and Rays (two), two squads that are vastly superior to the mediocre Phillies.
Go back to last summer, and the Yankees are on a 61-17 roll in their new stadium. And get this: 22 of their 23 home wins this season have been by more than one run. Re-read that, because it’s a remarkable statistic.
I’ll absolutely side with Andy Pettitte (8-1, 2.46 ERA) over Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.80) on the mound, too. Over his last four starts, Pettitte has allowed just seven runs in 30 innings (2.10 ERA) with a 23-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and New York is 10-2 in Pettitte’s 12 starts this year (7-1 at home). Also, Pettitte has faced Philadelphia six times since 2005 (when he was with the Astros), and his teams are a perfect 6-0. That includes two World Series starts last year, and New York rolled to multiple-run wins (8-5 and 7-3).
As for Kendrick, he’s coming off a rough outing at Florida (six runs allowed in five innings), and though his offense bailed him out in a 10-8 home win, the Phillies are just 6-6 when Kendrick takes the mound, including 2-4 on the road.
Last night’s victory aside, the Phillies are still in slumps of 7-15 overall, 2-7 on the road, 1-7 as an underdog, 1-4 after a victory, 2-8 when Kendrick pitches on the road and 2-5 versus the A.L. Additionally, 13 of the Phillies’ last 16 defeats have been by more than one run.
5? N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS (ON A 1? TO 5? SCALE)
Karl Garrett Comp
Comp play winner on Wednesday on the Mets, now it is on to Thursday.
Tampa ran into a bit of good pitching last night in Atlanta, as Tommy Hanson righted the ship for the Braves after Tuesday's 10-4 loss.
G-Man likes the pitching matchup again tonight to favor Atlanta, as Tim Hudson has been rock-solid all season long for the Bravos, sporting a 6-2 mark with a 2.43 season ERA. Hudson is coming off a very hard-luck loss, working 8 frames of 2 run ball in a loss to the Twins.
For the year, Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts.
Tampa will start James Shields who has lost his way of late. Shields has lost his last 4 starts, and he has been bombarded for 19 earned runs, and 25 hits over his last 23-plus innings of work.
With the Braves now 20-7 at home this year after last night's win, G-Man will ride Atlanta to take the rubber-game of this set.
3? ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Bonus Play
Nailed the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Mets as they took down the Indians in Cleveland and improved my comp record to 110-92-3. Tonight I have a freebie comign on the Astros as they take on the Royals in Kansas City.
I love Houston in this matchup as they have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the hill in Kansas City against the Royals’ Anthony Lerew, who is making his first start of the season and just his sixth career start.
Myers has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight outings and three runs or less in eight of his last 10. In New York on Friday, he allowed four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in a tough 4-3 loss. But prior to that he’d completely shut down the Cubs and Nationals in back-to-back starts, allowing three earned runs in 13.2 innings of work.
Lerew hasn’t started this season and his team has lost four of his previous five career outings. Last September he made two starts for the Royals, losing to the Red Sox and Yankees. He allowed a combined six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
Kansas City has not been very good lately, just 3-7 as a home favorite, 2-6 against right-handers in interleague action, 2-7 in interleague home games and 6-15 at home against teams with road winning percentages of less than .400.
Myers and the Astros should roll to win in this one as Lerew has not been very good in the spot starts he’s had previously. Houston took Wednesday’s contest and I expect them to win today as well. Let’s take any plus-money we can get and go with Houston in this one.
2? HOUSTON
Derek Mancini Comp
Nice comp winner with the Dodgers over the Reds 6-2 last night. Going with another road chalk Thursday, as the White Sox and Pirates finish up their series, and I'm calling for the sweep.
Pirates couldn't have picked a worse time to run into the Pale Hose, who are surging, winners of 6 of their L7, including yesterday's 7-2 victory. Danks was great, and the Pirates once again failed to do much of anything at the plate. Their six errors was a complete embarassment and shows just far this team has sunk during their now 10-game losing streak.
Problems only mount as they face another lefty tonight in Mark Buehrle (4-6, 4.93 ERA). He started the month off horribly, but quickly recovered in his last start, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless at the Cubs Saturday. It's no secret that Buehrle has dominated the NL throughout his career, going 21-6 in interleague play. That includes a 3-0 record and 1.80 ERA in 4 career starts against the Pirates.
Not much hope for Ohlendorf (0-4, 4.95 ERA) here, as he continues to look for his 1st win of the season. He was terrible at Detroit in his last outing, and facing a White Sox offense that's finally woken up (thanks in large part to Konerko) won't help. He's also 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in 2 career games (1 start) vs. the Pale Hose.
2? CHICAGO WHITE SOX
BRETT ATKINS
Bonus Play
It's an interleague winner tonight coming on the Astros as they should take care of business when they finish off a series against the Royals in Kansas City.
The Royals are going with Anthony Lerew in his first start of the season tonight against the Astros in interleague play from Kansas City. Lerew hasn’t started since September last year when he made two spot starts – facing the Yankees and Red Sox, losing both and allowing six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
The Royals are just 3-7 as a home favorite and 2-7 in interleague home games.
Meanwhile, the Astros have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the mound tonight and he has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight starts. He gave up four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in the Bronx on Friday, but was coming off two superb outings against the Cubs and Nationals, giving up three earned runs in 13.2 innings.
I’ll gladly take any plus-money on Myers in this one. Play the Astros.
4? HOUSTON (on a 1? to 5?)
TRACE ADAMS
THURSDAY'S Bonus Play - Houston Astros
JOEL TYSON
Bonus Play
8-4 the last 12 days for free.
The linemakers have been very stubborn about lowering the total in this Celtics-Lakers series, so I am forced to go with the obvious this Thursday evening in Game 7 of the series, and that is to play the game under the total.
The under has been the play the last 4 times these teams have stepped foot on the court, and it really hasn't been close, as Tuesday night's game stayed low by over 40 points.
Last Sunday night's game in Beantown landed under by 10 points or so, and last Thursday night's game on the parquet floor wound up being under by 15 points.
The numbers simply cannot be ignored here...play the low, and force these teams to show you they can actually score some points.
I doubt they can!
3? UNDER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
JAY MCNEIL
Bonus Play
Los Angeles at Cincinnati
Arroyo hasn’t necessarily been all that impressive in his last three starts, as he’s 0-1 and has allowed 14 earned runs over about 19 innings of work. The veteran right-hander comes in after pitching seven innings in the series opener against Kansas City last Friday, when he allowed five runs and six hits with three walks. Now he comes in for a day game against the overpowering Dodgers, and that’s not a good thing, as Arroyo is -31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to an impressive 69-55 with at night.
Though I’m basing on this play on going against Arroyo, I’ll make mention that young John Ely is due to negate this dry patch he’s encountered. I know he’s allowed four runs in five innings in each of his past two starts and has given up a combined three home runs, but that’s to be expected once teams have accurate scouting reports to play off of.
But the fact is, when Ely is spot-on, he’s successful. He has near-pinpoint control with a fastball that doesn't reach much beyond the high 80s, while his best pitch is a plus-plus changeup. His 12-to-6 curveball can be an out pitch at times, too.
This is a good spot for him to get back on track, so I’ll play the Dodgers and list both for the easy win.
2? DODGERS (With Ely over Arroyo)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JEFF BENTON
Bonus Play
Back-to-back easy freebie winners, as I scored with the Braves in a rout on Wednesday. I’m now on an 88-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday, I’m staying in Atlanta and once again backing the Braves against Tampa Bay.
As I said Wednesday, once you get past the starting pitching matchup, these are two very evenly matched ballclubs. And the results of the first two games of this series have proven that accurate, as the Rays cruised to a 10-4 on Monday with David Price outpitching Kenshin Kawakami, while Atlanta got revenge with Tuesday’s 6-2 win thanks to a dominant performance by Tommy Hanson and a subpar effort by Tampa right-hander Wade Davis.
Well, in this rubber match, Atlanta once again has the pitching edge with Tim Hudson opposing the Rays’ James Shields. The numbers tell the story: Hudson is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, and he’s held all 13 of his opponents to three earned runs or fewer (allowing two runs or less 11 times). And the veteran righty has been lights out at home (3-1, 2.02 ERA). Also, check out Hudson’s career numbers against Tampa Bay: 6-1, 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .230 batting-average against.
As for Shields, he started out strong, but he’s now 5-5 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he’s given up the following run totals: 7, 6 and 10. He’s also surrendered a combined 30 hits and five walks in those three games covering just 15 2/3 innings. And after going 7-2 in Shields’ first nine starts, Tampa Bay has lost his last four in a row by a combined score of 30-15.
The Braves are now on runs of 20-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 21-7 against right-handed starters and 45-19 as a chalk. Atlanta is also 5-0 in Hudson’s last five outings as a favorite and 17-8 in his last 25 as a home chalk. At the same time, the Rays are 8-21 in Shields’ last 29 starts as a road underdog.
Put it all together and toss in a very reasonable price, and I’ll look for Atlanta to win this series.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
4? ATLANTA BRAVES
Dave Cokin Comp
(971) HOUSTON ASTROS
(972) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take "(971) HOUSTON ASTROS"
Golden contender
On Thursday the Bonus Play is on the Chicago WhiteSox. Game 959 at 7:05 eastern. Chicago fits a nice system here tonight that plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs,if they left 5 or more men on base and they are taking on an opponent off a 5 or more run home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and left 4 or less men on base. These road favorites cash 84% of the time over the past few years. The Pirates are on a long losing streak and have been playing lousy fundamental baseball, as evidence by all their errors last night. Chicago will look to get their first road sweep tonight. On Thursday I have a the NBA Finals side that will cash and is backed with a Solid system and 3 big never before seen Power angles. In MLB we cashed the top play on Wednesday and have a Big Totals system that averages 12.5 runs per game. For the Bonus Play take the Chicago Whitesox to deal the struggling Pirates another loss.
MATT FARGO
Bonus Play
We used the Dodgers in this spot last night and we will go back with them this afternoon in the series finale. Just like last night, there is tremendous value on the Dodgers here after they have taken the first two games of this series with relative ease. That now makes it 14 wins in the last 17 meetings in this series and for Los Angeles overall, it is now 27-11 over its last 38 games including an 11-3 record on the road. Cincinnati is just 3-6 on its current homestand and it has now fallen into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the National League Central. The pitching is turning into a problem as the ERA from the starters over the last 10 games is a gaudy 5.58 while the bullpen ERA over that span is 5.68. After tossing six straight quality starts, rookie John Ely has struggled over his last two games, allowing four runs in five innings on both occasions. This is a great spot to bounce back as he was hurt by the long ball in those games, giving up three dingers, his first three of the entire season. On the season he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in nine starts with the Dodgers going 6-3 in those games. The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been extremely inconsistent all season. In his 13 starts, he has thrown only six quality outings and only three of his six starts at home have been quality performances as well. In his career, Arroyo is just 22-31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to 69-55 with a 4.15 ERA at night and facing the Dodgers will not help matters. In nine starts against Los Angeles, he is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA with his teams going just 1-8 in those games. This includes a 0-4 record since 2008. The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game while the Reds are 1-7 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game so momentum has played a big role of late. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers
JOHN MARTIN
NBA | Jun 17
1 Unit Bonus Play on Los Angeles Lakers -7
JACK JONES
Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Arizona Diamondbacks +133
Dan Haren has finally turned the corner for the Diamondbacks, pitching very well of late after his usual slow start to the season. Haren is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Arizona. He is mowing down hitters this season, striking out 97 batters in 95.2 innings. His control has been much better of late, and he is no longer serving up the long ball. Haren gave up just 2 walks and 1 home run in his last 3 outings.
John Lackey has not pitched well this season though his record would not indicate it. Lackey is 7-3 despite posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.574 WHIP this year. He is 5-1 at home despite a 5.10 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his seven home outings. This just means that Lackey has been getting tremendous run support, but that ends tonight against Haren. The Diamondbacks Ace has posted a 2.65 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in six career starts vs. Boston. This is notoriously one of Haren's best months, as the righty has gone 25-9 against the money line in June games since 1997. He is also 25-9 against the Money Line vs. AL East opponents in his career. So Haren has owned what is known as the best division in basebal throughout his career. Boston could be disinterested tonight after winning the first 2 games of this series and with the Dodgers up next. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. Take Arizona Thursday showing solid value.
CRAIG TRAPP
Bonus Play
ATL -120: Just a few weeks ago TB was one of the best teams in the league but don't look now they have lost 4 of 6 and have not looked great in many of the games. Worse news for TB is that pitching has not been great for them. Including struggles with today's starter Shields. 0-4 last 4 starts as Shields has given up 22 runs in 23 innings. On the other side we have one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL as Hudson goes for ATL. Hudson has been dominating with a ton of ground ball outs and he has not allowed over 3 runs this season. ATL is not the best at the plate but at home they are much better and combine that with Shields struggles think ATL will win very easily. ENJOY!
JAMIE TURSINI
Bonus Play
MLB | Jun 17
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees Total
10 over+100
Chris Jordan
Bonus Play
Let me be the first to tell you, and keep this in mind for the second half of the season, the Nationals are going to be an absolute dangerous baseball underdog after the All-Star Break. Their rotation with Strasburg, Lannan, Hernandez and today’s starter Luis Atilano can be productive from what I’ve seen thus far. I like this kid Atilano, who is 5-3 thus far, with a somewhat respectable 4.34 ERA, but most importantly has been a workhorse on the road and plenty reliable in opposing stadiums.
The 25-year-old right-hander is 4-1 with a suitcase in hand, and sports an even better 3.51 ERA than his overall number. I know he’s lost his last two starts, but he was due to fail, and he didn’t even pitch that bad against Cleveland or Cincinnati, allowing just four earned runs over 12 innings of work.
The loss to Cleveland was his first road setback, as he dealt nothing but value against the Cubs, Mets, Rockies, Giants and Astros. I expect nothing less today against the Tigers. I know he’ll be in for a battle against Jeremy Bonderman, who has a 2.45 ERA at home. But Detroit’s right-hander is 1-2 in Motown, and just was swatted around for seven earned runs by Kansas City two starts back.
Give me the huge value play with a great price on this underdog today.
3? NATIONALS (LIST ATILANO AND BONDERMAN)
Stephen Nover
Bonus Play
There has been a big gap between the two clubs since the Yankees beat the Phillies in the World Series last year. The gap has become so large the Yankees are worth laying 1 1/2 on the run line against Philadelphia.
The Yankees remain one of the best, if not the best, team in baseball. The Phillies, however, are really struggling. Their hitting has fallen apart with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth all mired in slumps and Jimmy Rollins on the DL.
The Phillies aren't helped by this pitching mismatch either. They are going with right-hander Kyle Kendrick against southpaw Andy Pettitte.
Kendrick has a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The Phillies have lost in eight of Kendrick’s past 10 road starts. He's in danger of losing his spot in the rotation when J.A. Happ comes off the DL in the near future.
The Yankees are 42-10 at home when facing a right-handed starter. The Phillies have lost the last five times they've gone against a southpaw.
Pettitte is red-hot, too, not surrendering more than two earned runs during any of his past four starts. He is 6-1 at Yankee Stadium this season with a 2.84 ERA.
The Yankees are 27-11 in Pettitte's last 38 interleague starts.
3? YANKEES RUN LINE (LIST BOTH PITCHERS)
Chuck O'Brien Comp
Thursday’s complimentary selection in interleague action comes from Yankee Stadium, as I’ll take New York on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Phillies.
Philadelphia got a stunning pitching performance from the ageless Jamie Moyer last night and pulled off a huge 6-3 upset victory, which snapped the Yankees’ nine-game home winning streak. However, New York simply doesn’t lose consecutive home games – it’s happened just once all season, and it was a three-game slide against the Red Sox (one) and Rays (two), two squads that are vastly superior to the mediocre Phillies.
Go back to last summer, and the Yankees are on a 61-17 roll in their new stadium. And get this: 22 of their 23 home wins this season have been by more than one run. Re-read that, because it’s a remarkable statistic.
I’ll absolutely side with Andy Pettitte (8-1, 2.46 ERA) over Kyle Kendrick (3-2, 4.80) on the mound, too. Over his last four starts, Pettitte has allowed just seven runs in 30 innings (2.10 ERA) with a 23-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and New York is 10-2 in Pettitte’s 12 starts this year (7-1 at home). Also, Pettitte has faced Philadelphia six times since 2005 (when he was with the Astros), and his teams are a perfect 6-0. That includes two World Series starts last year, and New York rolled to multiple-run wins (8-5 and 7-3).
As for Kendrick, he’s coming off a rough outing at Florida (six runs allowed in five innings), and though his offense bailed him out in a 10-8 home win, the Phillies are just 6-6 when Kendrick takes the mound, including 2-4 on the road.
Last night’s victory aside, the Phillies are still in slumps of 7-15 overall, 2-7 on the road, 1-7 as an underdog, 1-4 after a victory, 2-8 when Kendrick pitches on the road and 2-5 versus the A.L. Additionally, 13 of the Phillies’ last 16 defeats have been by more than one run.
5? N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS (ON A 1? TO 5? SCALE)
Karl Garrett Comp
Comp play winner on Wednesday on the Mets, now it is on to Thursday.
Tampa ran into a bit of good pitching last night in Atlanta, as Tommy Hanson righted the ship for the Braves after Tuesday's 10-4 loss.
G-Man likes the pitching matchup again tonight to favor Atlanta, as Tim Hudson has been rock-solid all season long for the Bravos, sporting a 6-2 mark with a 2.43 season ERA. Hudson is coming off a very hard-luck loss, working 8 frames of 2 run ball in a loss to the Twins.
For the year, Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts.
Tampa will start James Shields who has lost his way of late. Shields has lost his last 4 starts, and he has been bombarded for 19 earned runs, and 25 hits over his last 23-plus innings of work.
With the Braves now 20-7 at home this year after last night's win, G-Man will ride Atlanta to take the rubber-game of this set.
3? ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Bonus Play
Nailed the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Mets as they took down the Indians in Cleveland and improved my comp record to 110-92-3. Tonight I have a freebie comign on the Astros as they take on the Royals in Kansas City.
I love Houston in this matchup as they have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the hill in Kansas City against the Royals’ Anthony Lerew, who is making his first start of the season and just his sixth career start.
Myers has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight outings and three runs or less in eight of his last 10. In New York on Friday, he allowed four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in a tough 4-3 loss. But prior to that he’d completely shut down the Cubs and Nationals in back-to-back starts, allowing three earned runs in 13.2 innings of work.
Lerew hasn’t started this season and his team has lost four of his previous five career outings. Last September he made two starts for the Royals, losing to the Red Sox and Yankees. He allowed a combined six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
Kansas City has not been very good lately, just 3-7 as a home favorite, 2-6 against right-handers in interleague action, 2-7 in interleague home games and 6-15 at home against teams with road winning percentages of less than .400.
Myers and the Astros should roll to win in this one as Lerew has not been very good in the spot starts he’s had previously. Houston took Wednesday’s contest and I expect them to win today as well. Let’s take any plus-money we can get and go with Houston in this one.
2? HOUSTON
Derek Mancini Comp
Nice comp winner with the Dodgers over the Reds 6-2 last night. Going with another road chalk Thursday, as the White Sox and Pirates finish up their series, and I'm calling for the sweep.
Pirates couldn't have picked a worse time to run into the Pale Hose, who are surging, winners of 6 of their L7, including yesterday's 7-2 victory. Danks was great, and the Pirates once again failed to do much of anything at the plate. Their six errors was a complete embarassment and shows just far this team has sunk during their now 10-game losing streak.
Problems only mount as they face another lefty tonight in Mark Buehrle (4-6, 4.93 ERA). He started the month off horribly, but quickly recovered in his last start, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless at the Cubs Saturday. It's no secret that Buehrle has dominated the NL throughout his career, going 21-6 in interleague play. That includes a 3-0 record and 1.80 ERA in 4 career starts against the Pirates.
Not much hope for Ohlendorf (0-4, 4.95 ERA) here, as he continues to look for his 1st win of the season. He was terrible at Detroit in his last outing, and facing a White Sox offense that's finally woken up (thanks in large part to Konerko) won't help. He's also 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in 2 career games (1 start) vs. the Pale Hose.
2? CHICAGO WHITE SOX
BRETT ATKINS
Bonus Play
It's an interleague winner tonight coming on the Astros as they should take care of business when they finish off a series against the Royals in Kansas City.
The Royals are going with Anthony Lerew in his first start of the season tonight against the Astros in interleague play from Kansas City. Lerew hasn’t started since September last year when he made two spot starts – facing the Yankees and Red Sox, losing both and allowing six runs in 10.2 innings of work.
The Royals are just 3-7 as a home favorite and 2-7 in interleague home games.
Meanwhile, the Astros have Brett Myers (4-4, 3.18 ERA) on the mound tonight and he has pitched well lately, allowing two runs or less in six of his last eight starts. He gave up four runs in seven innings to the Yankees in the Bronx on Friday, but was coming off two superb outings against the Cubs and Nationals, giving up three earned runs in 13.2 innings.
I’ll gladly take any plus-money on Myers in this one. Play the Astros.
4? HOUSTON (on a 1? to 5?)
TRACE ADAMS
THURSDAY'S Bonus Play - Houston Astros
JOEL TYSON
Bonus Play
8-4 the last 12 days for free.
The linemakers have been very stubborn about lowering the total in this Celtics-Lakers series, so I am forced to go with the obvious this Thursday evening in Game 7 of the series, and that is to play the game under the total.
The under has been the play the last 4 times these teams have stepped foot on the court, and it really hasn't been close, as Tuesday night's game stayed low by over 40 points.
Last Sunday night's game in Beantown landed under by 10 points or so, and last Thursday night's game on the parquet floor wound up being under by 15 points.
The numbers simply cannot be ignored here...play the low, and force these teams to show you they can actually score some points.
I doubt they can!
3? UNDER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)
JAY MCNEIL
Bonus Play
Los Angeles at Cincinnati
Arroyo hasn’t necessarily been all that impressive in his last three starts, as he’s 0-1 and has allowed 14 earned runs over about 19 innings of work. The veteran right-hander comes in after pitching seven innings in the series opener against Kansas City last Friday, when he allowed five runs and six hits with three walks. Now he comes in for a day game against the overpowering Dodgers, and that’s not a good thing, as Arroyo is -31 with a 4.54 ERA in day games, as opposed to an impressive 69-55 with at night.
Though I’m basing on this play on going against Arroyo, I’ll make mention that young John Ely is due to negate this dry patch he’s encountered. I know he’s allowed four runs in five innings in each of his past two starts and has given up a combined three home runs, but that’s to be expected once teams have accurate scouting reports to play off of.
But the fact is, when Ely is spot-on, he’s successful. He has near-pinpoint control with a fastball that doesn't reach much beyond the high 80s, while his best pitch is a plus-plus changeup. His 12-to-6 curveball can be an out pitch at times, too.
This is a good spot for him to get back on track, so I’ll play the Dodgers and list both for the easy win.
2? DODGERS (With Ely over Arroyo)
(on a 1? to 5? scale)
JEFF BENTON
Bonus Play
Back-to-back easy freebie winners, as I scored with the Braves in a rout on Wednesday. I’m now on an 88-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday, I’m staying in Atlanta and once again backing the Braves against Tampa Bay.
As I said Wednesday, once you get past the starting pitching matchup, these are two very evenly matched ballclubs. And the results of the first two games of this series have proven that accurate, as the Rays cruised to a 10-4 on Monday with David Price outpitching Kenshin Kawakami, while Atlanta got revenge with Tuesday’s 6-2 win thanks to a dominant performance by Tommy Hanson and a subpar effort by Tampa right-hander Wade Davis.
Well, in this rubber match, Atlanta once again has the pitching edge with Tim Hudson opposing the Rays’ James Shields. The numbers tell the story: Hudson is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, and he’s held all 13 of his opponents to three earned runs or fewer (allowing two runs or less 11 times). And the veteran righty has been lights out at home (3-1, 2.02 ERA). Also, check out Hudson’s career numbers against Tampa Bay: 6-1, 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .230 batting-average against.
As for Shields, he started out strong, but he’s now 5-5 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he’s given up the following run totals: 7, 6 and 10. He’s also surrendered a combined 30 hits and five walks in those three games covering just 15 2/3 innings. And after going 7-2 in Shields’ first nine starts, Tampa Bay has lost his last four in a row by a combined score of 30-15.
The Braves are now on runs of 20-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 21-7 against right-handed starters and 45-19 as a chalk. Atlanta is also 5-0 in Hudson’s last five outings as a favorite and 17-8 in his last 25 as a home chalk. At the same time, the Rays are 8-21 in Shields’ last 29 starts as a road underdog.
Put it all together and toss in a very reasonable price, and I’ll look for Atlanta to win this series.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
4? ATLANTA BRAVES
Philadelphia Joe(from the Swami's group) has his NBA GOY going tonight-not the playoffs but the ENTIRE YEAR-yeah right like it is just a coincidence that the last and deciding game of the Playoffs in which anything can happen, and someone decides it is his one and only GOY-what some of these clowns will say to make a sale!!!!
